There’s been plenty of news about the Matcha shortage. Both on mainstream media, online social media, and in the Ooika blog. Despite this, there’s still a lot of misunderstandings about what’s going on behind the scenes with the shortage.

To address this, we put together a list of 11 facts you should know that give a bigger story about the Matcha boom, and Matcha shortage.

1 - Only 0.8% of People in Japan drink Matcha Daily

There’s no doubt Matcha is famous in Japan - it’s an integral part of Japanese culture, especially Chanoyu (Japanese tea ceremony.) Yet, it’s not exactly popular.

You might be surprised to learn just how little Matcha is actually consumed in Japan. A typical Japanese person may only drink Matcha a few times in their life, for very specific occasions.

Quick Facts:

Only 29.6% of Japanese have ever whisked a bowl of Matcha.
70% of Japanese have never experienced a tea ceremony.
Only 0.8% drink Matcha "every day."

Unlike the United States where most cafes offer Matcha lattes, Matcha isn’t that common in Japan at cafes.

2 - Green Tea Exports Increased 10X over the past 20 Years

According to trade statistics released by the Ministry of Finance on the 30th:

Green tea exports in 2024 are expected to increase 24.6% from the previous year to 36.4 billion yen.
This sets a new record for the fifth consecutive year.
“Powdered tea" such as matcha increased 25.9% to 27.2 billion yen.
“Other tea" such as sencha increased 21.1% to 9.2 billion yen.
Export volume in 2024 will increase 16.1% to 8,798 tonnes, 10 times the amount from 20 years ago.
Powdered tea increased 18.7% to 5,092 tonnes, and other tea increased 12.7% to 3,706 tonnes.

The world has “woken up” to Matcha and Japanese tea, which is creating the conditions for the severe shortages.

3 - More Heat and More Frost over 53 years, Future Tea Harvests

From 1969 to 2021, there’s been a clear rise in temperature according to the Kyoto Tea Research Institute for temperatures in March (though no trend observed in April.) The issue isn’t only Heat, but Frost.

Frost

Looking at the frequency of days when the daily minimum temperature fell below 0°C (which has a very high chance of causing frost damage)

We see that it occurs about once every two to three years, with 1 to 4 days in the first half of April.

The warm weather in March promotes the growth of new buds, with the budbreak concentrated in early April. If there are 'low-temperature days' below 0°C in April, there is a high probability of frost damage."

March Hotter, April Colder

Since 1990:

Temperatures in March have risen significantly.
While they’ve been on a downward trend in April.

This means both hotter conditions for the plants, followed by increased risk of frost damage. These changing temperatures pose a variety of risks:

Shifting the timing of pest and disease outbreaks (making prevention more difficult.)
Causing high temperatures and little rain in summer, which hinder growth - as we’ve seen in 2024!

As far as the shortage, if temperatures, heat, and frost continue being an issue, we may see unpredictable changes to the tea industry in the future.

4 - The 2024 Panic Buying is Relaxing

Exports have increased significantly due to factors such as a health-conscious trend and growing interest in Japanese food in the United States, EU, and other countries.

Exports in 2023 (Reiwa 5) reached a record high of 29.2 billion yen.
Due to panic buying in 2024, exports from January to September reached 25.1 billion yen (a 26% increase from the same period last year.)
The Export target in 2025 (Reiwa 7) is 31.2 billion yen.

Slowing but Increasing

According to data from the MAFF, there was a sharp spike in 2024 due to panic buying. While the panic seems to be relaxing (less sudden emergency stockpiling), the overall trend is still moving upwards.

5 - Only 6% of Japanese Tea Production is Matcha

As mentioned, Matcha has never been a casual drink in Japan. Sencha (loose leaf green tea), Coffee, and water reign supreme. With how little Matcha is actually consumed in Japan, there’s been (historically speaking) very little reason to produce much.

Only 6% of all Japanese tea grown is Tencha (unground Matcha.) The rest? Mostly Sencha - the standard loose leaf green tea, usually used in PET bottled tea.

What this Means

No wonder there’s a shortage: Matcha is a very, very minor part of Japanese tea production. Very few people drink Matcha at all in Japan, let alone consistently. With the Matcha boom, the entire industry will have to shift for Japanese tea to catch up.

6 - There are 77% Less Tea Farms in the past 20 Years

It’s a misconception that Japan can’t support the entire Global Matcha boom in terms of land. There’s actually plenty of abandoned farms across the country: and the reason why might surprise you. The Japanese tea industry has been in a steady decline over the past two decades.

In the year 2000 there were approximately 53,687 tea farms.
By 2015, the number dropped to 19,603 tea farms.
And in 2024, there are less than 12,000 in 2024.

Now it is worth mentioning that some farmers have taken over lots. One farmer Ooika works with, Hattori-san greatly expanded his farm this year. Though abandoned farms (even in Uji!) are fairly common sights. Tea farmers have been retiring and walking away with few young generations to replace them.

In fact:

Over 70% of tea farmers are over 65 years old.
Only 1,500 tea farmers are under 49 years old.

7 - This is the Second Major Matcha Shortage where Prices Jumped over 150%.

While this shortage is the most severe, perhaps in all history of Matcha, it’s actually not the first major shortage. The first was actually in 1996, and it’s effects changed Matcha (the the Tencha growing terroirs) forever.

Enter, Haagen-Dazs

The year was 1996, and the US-based company Haagen-Dazs released their “green tea” ice cream. The year prior, Haagen-Dasz was scouting for tea sources and the conversation lead them to Uji. Ultimately, the prices were too high for the company, so their attention turned to Wazuka.

Today, Wazuka is synonymous with Matcha (it produces over 50% of all Kyoto’s Tencha.) Back then, it was a different story: it produced primarily Sencha. Things were about to change.

The Auction Houses

To set the stage, in 1995:

Kyoto produced 238 tons of Tencha.
The average Tencha per KG was 4,000 yen or 10,000 yen depending on the quality.

Just a year later in 1996, spurred on by Haagen-Dazs, the average prices at the Auction for Tencha jumped 150%.

Scissor-cut Tencha jumped from to 5,000 yen to 7,000 yen.
Prices for average Tencha jumped by nearly 150% to ¥6,000 or ¥15,000 depending on the quality.

It Doesn’t End there

Two more big changes:

From 1989 to 2015, Wazuka became primarily focused on Tencha production, going from just 1 Tencha factory to 34.
Wazuka had virtually no Tencha production. Now in 2025, nearly the entire Wazuka region is Tencha. All sparked from Haagen-Dazs (and later by Starbucks in by the launch of their Matcha Cream Frappuccino® in 2001.)
Another “Starbucks” shock occurred in 2015.
The boom for Nibancha Tencha was so big that the auction house made a separate category for it.

8 - The Recent Matcha Shortage Took off in October 2024.

Matcha had been getting more popular since 2019, and it’s very likely a shortage was inevitable. Even back then, Ooika’s team found it more challenging to source higher volumes of Tencha (unground Matcha.)

Things really started taking off in 2025, following some big announcements:

October, 2024 Marukyu Koyamaen announced limited availability of Matcha. (Source.)
October 30, 2024 Ippodo suspended sale of Matcha products. (Source.)

Many sources colloquially blame Tik-Tok. There’s no doubt that social media played a role in the speed of Matcha’s international growth. Though, Ooika believes that this popularity was inevitable.

Note from Ooika’s Founder: Matcha has been a little understood fine food product that checks all the boxes: delicious, varied in taste based on region, cultivation and production techniques, health and mood-altering. It was only a matter of time before it began to challenge coffee and other fine food products.

9 - Weather Contributed to 10-20% Less Tencha on the Market

Weather is not the cause of the Matcha shortage. The cause is an unprecedented increase of world-wide demand for what was a hyper-niche, largely unpopular (though famous) Japanese product.

With that said, weather did contribute to the problem. 2024’s summer was particularly hot, causing stress and damage to the tea bushes. Tea bushes that feel this level of stress produce less volume of leaves the following season.

Lower Yield

Here’s a few quick points to keep in mind:

According to Marukyu Koyamaen, there was a 20% lower total yield in the 2025 harvest from the previous year.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and related organizations, both the yield and harvest volume are estimated to be 80% to 90% of the previous year’s levels nationwide.

10 - There’s 40% less Nibancha Tencha at Auction in 2025

With 10-20% less tea produce in 2025, you’d expect to see 10-20% less Tencha at Auction. Except this is not the case.

Zennoh Kyoto market had 10,216KG Tencha in 2024, only 6,140 in 2025! (Nearly 40% less Tencha available at Auction.)

So what’s going on? There may be multiple reasons, but one is that tea companies in Japan are scrambling to buy privately from Tea farmers at high prices. They may do this so they can

Secure the tea they desperately need for their business over the next year.

This means that there’s less material available at Aucition.

Cultural Note: Unlike coffee auctions that are largely open to companies around the world, Tea auctions are highly private, and usually open only to large established tea companies.

11 - Matcha is Produced at Just 40g an Hour, Creating the Real Bottleneck

Not all Matcha is equal. Some is produced in large industrial grinders known as Bead-Mills, while other Matcha is created with Stone mills.

Bead-Mills result in a slightly more coarse grind, more suitable for cooking or industrial use.
Stone-Mills create a fine, smooth grind which excels in drinking as a traditional bowl of Matcha.

The Western Preference

The West tends to prefer the higher-quality stone-milled Matcha, even for use in culinary applications. This is well and good, but it means that it’s impossible to keep up with production, due to increased demand.

Stone-mills produce about 40g per hour.
Bead-mills produce about 20,000g per hour.

That means bead-mills 49900% more efficient - but it comes at a cost of quality.

The Shortage

Traditional stone-mills are typically hand-carved out of Aji stone, in Japan by master craftsman. Wait lists can be years long for just one mill - and any large company needs a lot of mills.

Companies like Horii Shinchanmae, a well known Matcha producer in Uji Japan, runs 80 mills and can’t keep up with demand.
Ooika has over a dozen mills, and can not come close to meeting demand.

Most serious Matcha production companies (as opposed to resellers) simply can’t grind their Tencha fast enough. This is why Matcha goes in and out of stock frequently.

AI Statement No AI was used in the creation of this content. All Ooika articles, content, emails and more are written and reviewed by real people.

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